NFL Futures & Prop Betting With the Best in the Business
For those of you who are unfamiliar with the FSGA or the Sportsbook League, here’s an introduction:
The FSGA (Fantasy Sports & Gaming Association) hosts drafts for industry leaders every summer and those drafts are broadcasted on Sirius XM. The Sportsbook League is a one-of-a-kind draft where 14 teams come together to pick exclusively Futures & Props bets for the NFL and College Football seasons.
The draft is a snake draft and is 12 rounds. Every team is given $10,000 to spend on bets and cannot bet more than $1,750 on any bet or less than $250.
For those that are interested, here’s the draft board:
Last season Champions Round placed in 5th and had some nice winners and would have profited overall in a real world environment. However, we were destroyed by Dan Harris of FantasyPros who had an elite strategy. He decided to EXCLUSIVELY pick long shots. He hit on a couple: Kevin Stefanski Coach of the Year, Aaron Rodgers MVP and Buccaneers Super Bowl, among others.
This season we decided to co-opt Dan’s strategy. Sitting in the 14th slot, we had a wait a bit before making our selections. Here’s how our draft panned out:
Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl 30/1 - $1,000 to win $30,000
Russell Wilson MVP 20/1 - $1,000 to win $20,000
The basic idea behind the first couple of picks of this draft was to stack bets. Given the options available, I had 3 stacks in mind: Bills + Sean McDermott coach of the year OR Josh Allen MVP; Seahawks Super Bowl + Wilson MVP and Cowboys Super Bowl + Dak MVP. Of all of those bets, Dak MVP would be my favorite. However, the actual stack I believe in the most is Russell Wilson MVP and Seahawks Super Bowl.
Do I think the Seahawks are going to win it all this year? No. But Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson was the MVP at the halfway mark last season and new Seahawks OC Shane Waldron is from the Rams/McVay coaching tree, meaning he will likely utilize the play-action game a lot, Russ’s specialty.
I believe the Russ-MVP bet is live and at 20/1 is a great value.
Buffalo Bills Super Bowl 12/1 - $1,000 to win $12,000
Sean McDermott Coach of the Year 17/1 - $1,000 to win $17,000
Another stack fell to me here at the 3-4 turn. I firmly believe Sean McDermott was the coach of the year last season (yes, I bet on that). Hopefully he gets rewarded this year if the Bills have another monster season. I don’t see why not. The Bills are clearly the second or third best team in the AFC. They should have a decent shot at winning the title.
Washington Football Team Super Bowl 60/1 - $1,000 to win $60,000
The odds on this bet are egregious. Sure, Washington isn’t likely to win the Super Bowl. But 60/1? Come on.
If Ryan Fitzpatrick is good, not even VERY good, Washington should easily be a playoff team. The team has a great group of playmakers, a very good offensive line and an ELITE defense. And by elite I don’t mean like a top 10 group. Washington could have the best defense in the NFL this season.
Odell Beckham Comeback Player of the Year 20/1 - $1,000 to win $20,000
Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff Comeback Player of the Year 14/1 - $750 to win $11,250
Sam Darnold Comeback Player of the Year 17/1 - $500 to win $9,000
Saquon Barkley Comeback Player of the Year 7/1 - $500 to win $3,500
Given the options we had to work with, I thought the Comeback Player of the Year was a place I could strike a couple of times. Dak Prescott is the heavy favorite and for good reason. But this is a fade of Dak here.
Odell and Saquon are both coming off of big injuries but have the sort of star power and brands to make a great case for this award. If Saquon has a giant year this could easily be his award to lose, unless Dak has an MVP caliber year, which he may. Odell is going to be on a great team and if he looks anything like his old self then this could be a decent bet.
Sam Darnold is kind of a shot in the dark at 17/1. He would need to have a monster year for the Panthers, but even then he doesn’t have a great narrative. Nonetheless, he’s a QB with some star power.
Lastly, the best story of the bunch, Chiefs OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff who left football last season to serve as a doctor in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. That is an incredible story and should the Chiefs have a good year and their offensive line is solid, he could win the award. He has a lot of things going against him (lack of stats, no history of the position winning the award), but we’ve never seen a recent player leave his craft, at the top of his game, to go serve as a doctor during a pandemic. Unique times. This would be a good one to win.
Najee Harris Rookie of the Year 10/1 - $1,000 to win $10,000
Usually the offensive rookie of the year goes to either a QB or stud RB who comes in and is a Pro Bowler immediately. Since 1993, a RB has won ROY 16 times, QB 9 times and WR 4 times. A tight end hasn’t won during that time period, but perhaps Kyle Pitts could break that trend.
Trevor Lawrence is the prohibitive favorite, while Trey Lance and Justin Fields could also make great case (as could Zach Wilson and Mac Jones). Ja’Marr Chase is probably the only rookie WR that is going to end the conversation.
Meanwhile, Steelers RB Najee Harris is going to step in day 1 as the bell cow RB. He’s going to have more volume than anyone else in the conversation. And if we go back to last season, it took an all-time rookie QB season from Justin Herbert to beat out Justin Jefferson. I don’t foresee a rookie QB having the same type of year as Herbert. I think this is Harris’ award to lose.
Jalen Ramsey Defensive Player of the Year 38/1 - $750 to win $29,250
Yes, Aaron Donald gets all of the praise in Los Angeles. Yes, Jalen Ramsey plays a position that doesn’t often win DPOY. Since 1993, only four cornerbacks have ever won the award: Rod Woodson, Deion Sanders, Charles Woodson and Stephon Gilmore. Notice not even Richard Sherman or Darrelle Revis won.
However, at 38-1 I can’t help but put money on the best CB in the league. If Donald goes down and the Rams are still elite on defense, Ramsey could be a great bet. I don’t expect this one to come through, but crazier bets have hit.
Sean Payton Coach of the Year 18/1 - $500 to win $9,500
If Sean Payton is able to keep things rolling in New Orleans without Drew Brees and is able to turn Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston into a productive NFL QB then he deserves to be recognized.
- Washington could be a real player if Fitzpatrick is healthy and productive
- Comeback Player of the Year is wide open after Dak
- If no rookie QB emerges, Najee should be ROY favorite.