New England Patriots 2021 Fantasy Preview

New England Patriots

2020 Record: 7-9

2021 Over/Under: o/u 9.5

2021 Divison Odds : +340

2021 Super Bowl Odds: +2500

As you prepare for the fantasy season, whether it be your home league, a big money squad or with us at Champions Round, we want you to be as prepared as possible heading into the season. And most of all we want to see you win! 

The New England Patriots enter their second season of the post Tom Brady era and a lot has changed. The Pats spent about a billion dollars in free agency, mostly on offensive “weapons” and have a first round QB in Mac Jones. Of course, Cam Newton is still in town. A lot of this season’s success will depend on Jones’ development and how quickly he takes over the job from Newton. 

The defense should be a strength, which raises their floor in terms of their record. This is a .500 team as currently constructed and probably will win 8 games regardless of how their QBs perform. But if Jones turns into a legitimate NFL starter in Year 1, this could be a Wild Card team in 2021.

Champions Round “JUICE” Projections

2021 Expected Record: 9-8

2021 Expected Points Per Game: 22.5

2021 Expected Points Allowed Per Game: 22.1

QB

Cam Newton - Rank: QB35

JUICE Projections: 97-173 Passing, 61% Completion, 1047 Passing Yds., 4 TD, 5 INT; 212 Rushing Yds, 3 Rush TD

Mac Jones - Rank: QB29

JUICE Projections: 230-354 Passing, 65% Completion, 2345 Passing Yds., 17 TD, 7 INT; 45 Rushing Yds, 1 Rush TD

This team was built around the idea that Newton would be the starter for the majority of the season and Jones would take over late in the season. Not so fast. Newton has looked shaky in the preseason and is now without the team for at least a week due to some COVID issues. Meanwhile, Jones has looked rock solid and is now practicing with the 1’s for the next week or so. Will he end up winning the job in camp? It looks like there’s a real chance that happens. 

If Newton plays, his fantasy floor is high due to his rushing abilities. If Jones plays, he’s nothing more than a very low end QB2. I would probably stay away from both in most formats. 

RB

Damien Harris - Rank: RB23

JUICE Projections: 227 carries, 1067 Rushing Yds, 10 Rush TD; 14 receptions, 92 Receiving Yds, 1 Rec. TD

Harris is a big buy for me in all formats given his ADP. Now, the trade of Sony Michel may drive his price up too high so it may not be a giant sale sign any longer. That being said, Harris is clearly the RB1 in New England and has been very productive in that role. In order for him to be a fantasy RB1 he’s going to need a decent amount of targets in the passing game. That doesn’t seem like it’s happening. So right now he’s like a poor man’s Josh Jacobs. You could do worse in the 7th round.

James White - Rank: RB55

JUICE Projections: 47 carries, 212 Rushing Yds, 1 Rush TD; 45 receptions, 287 Receiving Yds, 1 Rec. TD

White is going to do what he does every year. He’ll be a PPR flex starter and catch 45 passes. He’s nothing more, nothing less. If you go Zero RB, this is someone you want to target.

Rhamondre Stevenson - Rank: RB91

JUICE Projections: 95 carries, 437 Rushing Yds, 3 Rush TD; 8 receptions, 55 Receiving Yds

Stevenson has impressed in a big way in the preseason. If Harris goes down, Stevenson will be a RED ALERT priority add on waiver wires. Get ahead of the curve and take him with one of your last picks.

WR

Jakobi Meyers - Rank: WR41

JUICE Projections: 45 receptions, 588 Receiving Yds, 4 Rec. TD

Nelson Agholor - Rank: WR43

JUICE Projections: 38 receptions, 449 Receiving Yds, 3 Rec. TD

Kendrick Bourne - Rank: WR94

JUICE Projections: 27 receptions, 348 Receiving Yds, 1 Rec. TD

N’Keal Harry - Rank: WR113

JUICE Projections: 21 receptions, 260 Receiving Yds, 1 Rec. TD

I have a hard time buying in on any receivers in New England with Cam Newton. If Jones starts, I think Meyers and Agholor will have WR3 value with Jones in the lineup.

TE

Jonnu Smith - Rank: TE12

JUICE Projections: 67 receptions, 664 Receiving Yds, 4 Rec. TD

A lot of people are high on Smith. His athletic profile is great and the Patriots have had a lot of success with Tight Ends. Again, if Jones plays I think Smith could be a top 10 TE. If it’s Newton, he’s a sell.

Hunter Henry - Rank: TE23

JUICE Projections: 39 receptions, 450 Receiving Yds, 3 Rec. TD

Henry is very talented but is injured right now. With Jonnu in the lineup, I’m not sure Henry is very viable for fantasy this season.

TL;DR 2021 New England Patriots

  • Damien Harris is a buy
  • Go get Agholor and Meyers if Jones plays, same with Jonnu Smith
  • Don’t buy either QB in most formats

Thanks for reading and good luck in your drafts! Next Up: the New Orleans Saints!