NBA Finals Game 6 Best Bets
In what has seemingly been the longest season in NBA history, we could finally crown a champion tonight. The Bucks lead 3-2 and are in Milwaukee. The Suns, having lost 3 straight, need to win tonight in order to force a Game 7 back in Phoenix.
Not only are the Suns underdogs and on the road, but they will have to face Chris Paul’s nemesis: Referee Scott Foster. Foster and Paul have a history longer than a CVS receipt and Paul is 1-12 in games in which Foster has worked. Oh, that one win was in a game in which Paul did not play! The NBA is doing Chris Paul and the Suns no favors as they look to stay alive.
So what should you be betting on as we head into Game 6?
Suns +4.5, +165 ML
The first point here: You should bet the spread on whichever team you think is going to win. The chances of the Suns covering +4.5 and losing is pretty slim. There’s just not a whole lot of room to operate there.
My opinion here is that the Suns are going to come out guns blazing — Suns 1st Quarter and 1st Half will be on my betting sheet tonight — and I think coach Bud is in for a stinker. The Bucks have been on a heater of late and the Suns don’t have an answer for Giannis. But I trust Monty Williams in this spot and think they’ll hack Giannis early and force him to win the game by himself. Giannis can do it, but I like the Suns with their backs against the wall.
The general betting public would believe that an elimination game would spur more defense, leading people to bet the under. However, as usual, the public is misinformed.
Austin Wang of The Action Network points out that elimination games are usually a good spot to bet the over:
“There is a widely-believed assumption that since it is an elimination game, more defense will be played and the game will be low-scoring. However, in elimination games when the total is greater than the previous game’s total, the total has gone 22-7-1 the over since the 2015-2016 season, per the Sports Data Query Language database.”
In five of the seven games between the two teams this year, the game has gone over the total. I think we’re in store for another over tonight.
Giannis over 32.5 points
Khris Middleton under 25.5 points
Like I mentioned above, I think the Suns sell out on everyone else and let Giannis try to beat them by himself. That means a lot of perimeter defense and a lock down on Middleton. Giannis could score 40+, but I don’t think this is a Middleton game.
Final Prediction: Suns 117 - Bucks 111