Gambling With Gold TNF Patriots vs. Falcons

New England Patriots (6-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (4-5)

Line: NE -7

Total: 47


Last week showed us what the Patriots are truly capable of, but can they be trusted to continue this roll as road favorites in Atlanta? 

As of Thursday afternoon, the Patriots are getting 73% of the bets and 65% of the money, while the under is getting 47% of the bets and 63% of the money, per Action Network. 

The line movement in this game is worth noting, as well. The Patriots opened up at 6.5-point favorites and the line moved all the way to -7.5 before the sharps started betting on the Falcons. The line is sitting at 7 right now, with some books back to -6.5. My opinion is that big betting groups bet the Patriots early to scare the sports books a bit and then hammered the Falcons at +7.5.

Atlanta is coming off of an embarrassing blowout in Dallas against the Cowboys. But this is a team that is still fighting for a playoff birth and Matt Ryan, outside of last week, had been pretty productive recently. The Falcons thought they loss Cordarrelle Patterson for a couple of weeks, but he has been practicing this week and there’s a chance he plays in this game. That would be huge for ATL as Patterson has been their best offensive weapon all season. 

This line is obviously inflated due to the results last week. I would have this game set around Pats -4.5. That being said, the Patriots definitely have some advantages in this game. Without Hayden Hurst and potentially Patterson, that leave the Falcons with poor running back options and only one true receiving threat in Tight End Kyle Pitts. Bill Belichick will find a way to scheme Pitts out of the game, which means the Falcons will have to find another way to be successful offensively tonight. 

The Patriots will likely lean on their running game tonight, which should slow down the game. I like the under 47.5 here if you can find that number in the market. If the Patriots defense fails to score a TD, I feel very good about this under. 

Given the results last week and the short week to prepare, my thought is the Patriots offense won’t have a ton of success tonight and the Falcons will be able to score just enough to bring home this +7. Give me the Falcons and the under.

Prediction: NE 23 - ATL 20

Best Bets

ATL +7

Under 47.5

Kyle Pitts under 61.5 receiving yards (-125)

Olamide Zaccheaus over 2.5 receptions (-140)

Damien Harris under 54.5 rushing yards (+110)