Gambling With Gold Thanksgiving Day Betting Feast
Chicago Bears (3-7) vs. Detroit Lions (0-9-1)
Line: CHI -3.5
With rumors swirling that this may be Matt Nagy’s last game in Chicago, the Bears head to Detroit for a divisional clash. Andy Dalton will start for the Bears and he looked good in relief of Justin Fields last week. Meanwhile, the Lions look like they’ll go with Jared Goff, who missed last week’s game. If Goff can’t go, it will be Tim Boyle once again for Detroit.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the Lions (+3) were receiving 52% of the bets and 57% of the money, per Action Network. The under of 41.5 had 57% of the bets and 69% of the money, though most of those bigger money bets came when the line opened at 45. It has been bet down significantly since then, which may give us an opportunity to be the over. More on that in a minute.
The Bears have seemed to open up the offense with Dalton under center. Whether that’s a trust thing for Nagy or otherwise, it does feel like Dalton has a chance to throw the ball deeper down the field to Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson than Fields did. Given the Lions defense, I think the Bears offense can have some success through the air.
The Lions had success running the ball when these two teams met up earlier in the season and I expect them to try to do the same this week, especially given the state of the injuries on the Bears’ defense. D’Andre Swift should have a big game. Detroit got into the Bears’ red zone quite a few times in their last meeting, but turnovers limited their chances to score. I think they’ll convert more this time.
Chicago, with Dalton, has targeted their backs in the receiving game and I expect that trend to continue. I like the over receiving props for David Montgomery in this one.
The Lions may have a route to their first victory here, but I would have felt better about that with Fields under center. That’s not a knock on Fields, I just don’t think Nagy trusts him fully yet. With Dalton in and the seat red hot, I think Nagy throws the kitchen sink at this game and the Bears are able to come out with a win.
Prediction: CHI 27 - DET 17
Andy Dalton over 219.5 passing yards (-114)
David Montgomery over 2.5 receptions
David Montgomery over 17.5 receiving yards
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Line: DAL -7.5
The Dallas Cowboys, coming off of a loss to the Chiefs in which the offense struggled mightily, face the reeling Las Vegas Raiders in Dallas. This game will kick off just about when it’s time to switch to stretchy pants.
The Raiders (+7.5) are getting 43% of the bets and 62% of the money, per Action Network. The over has 53% of the bets and 62% of the money as of Wednesday afternoon.
Should we be concerned about the Cowboys offensive performance against KC? I don’t think so. It was a weird situation where Dallas didn’t have Tyron Smith or Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb had to leave early and Ezekiel Elliott got banged up. Things happen. I do expect the Cowboys to be able to score in this game, especially against a Raiders defense that is struggling against the pass right now.
The scary part for the Cowboy is if Smith is out, which it looks like he’ll play right now. The Raiders’ pass rush is still pretty fearsome and could rattle Dak Prescott a bit. With Smith in though, that line should give Dak plenty of time to do his thing.
On the other side of the ball, the Raiders offense is not clicking at all right now. It seems as though the loss of Henry Ruggs has meant a lot more than we originally thought. The offensive line has been an issue. It’s just bad in Vegas right now and they’ve lost their identity as a pass first, downfield attack. The Cowboys defense has been able to contain potent offenses for the most part this season, as we saw last week against KC. Micah Parsons is an absolute beast and Dallas continues to pressure opposing QBs at a high rate. That is not a good thing for Derek Carr, especially given how he’s looked the past three games.
I think this game will get off to a relatively slow start and I like the under 25.5 first half. I like the game total under as well, but to a lesser degree. I do think there’s a chance the Cowboys come out and absolutely smoke Vegas here, but because of the short week I think I have to pass on the -7.5 and will instead opt for using the Cowboys as an ELITE teaser piece.
Prediction: DAL 28 - LV 20
DAL -1.5/BUF PK Teaser
Under 25.5 1H
Dalton Schultz under 50.5 receiving yards
Tony Pollard over 14.5 receiving yards (-110)
Buffalo Bills (6-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (5-5)
Line: BUF -6
The Saints, coming off of three straight losses and without Alvin Kamara again, host the Buffalo Bills in our boozing and third helping of pie portion of the slate. The Bills, fresh off a loss to the Colts in which they got dismantled by Jonathan Taylor, are laying 6-points on the road.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the Bills were getting 64% of the bets and 47% of the money, while the under of 45.5 had 32% of the bets and 43% of the money.
The Bills have yet to lose consecutive games this season and you have to think they’re a team that is capable of dominating a Saints squad that is reeling from injuries all over the field. Moreover, Buffalo is built, specifically offensively, as a team that can thrive in an indoor setting. They have speed all over the field at wide receiver and Josh Allen is very capable on the ground.
Buffalo coaches last week mentioned that they need Allen to be more aggressive with his legs, especially on third downs and that his mobility may open up their passing game a bit more. Given how Jalen Hurts dismantled this Saints defense on the ground last week, it seems to me that Allen is in a for a huge game on the ground, especially on that fast turf in New Orleans. I am going to be betting his over rushing yards and believe he could have the most total rushing yards of any player on Thanksgiving. Those odds are +1000 right now. Spicy!
The Saints offense, without Kamara, has been pretty terrible and now they face a defense that generates more pressure than any other in football. Yes, I’m sure Sean Payton will have a great game plan, but I’m also sure that with a short week he hasn’t had as much time to plan as he would like. That’s an issue. The Saints are going to play a lot of their base offense against this Bills team that can absolutely manhandle any offense in football, except for apparently the Colts. Did we mention the Saints offensive line is banged up? Yup. That’s not gonna help things. Without Kamara and perhaps Mark Ingram, will the Saints turn to Taysom Hill? It’s within reason. I like his over rushing props and any time TD odds.
Overall, this Bills may not light it up in this game, but the talent difference is massive and I think they’ll be able to get it done.
Prediction: BUF 28 - NO 17
DAL -1.5/BUF PK Teaser
Josh Allen over 35.5 rushing yards (-114)
Josh Allen most rushing yards on Thanksgiving (+1000)
Taysom Hill any time TD (+250)