Gambling With Gold MNF Rams vs. 49ers
Los Angeles Rams (7-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-5)
Line: LAR -3.5
It’e been quite the week in LA with the Rams signing Odell Beckham Jr., and then losing Robert woods. That’s on top of losing on SNF to the Titans and also trading for Von Miller a couple of days before that. Needless to say, there’s a lot happening.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are coming off of one of the most embarrassing losses of the season when they dropped a home game to the Kyler Murray-less Arizona Cardinals. That sets up a very important Monday Night game between these two rivals.
As of Monday AM, 83% of the bets and 78% of the money is on the Rams, while 56% of the bets and 62% of the money is on the over, per Action Network. Despite the lack of difference in ticket counts, the sharp money came in on the 49ers at +4.
For the Rams, it will be interesting to see how much OBJ is incorporated into the offense. With Woods out for the season, it seems likely that the former Browns star will be the WR2 in LA in short order. However, with only a couple of practices under his belt thus far, will he be a factor tonight? We’ll see, but I would bet on Van Jefferson being a big part of the offense for this game against SF.
The Rams’ offensive line got demolished by the Titans last Sunday night and it’s definitely a concern going forward. The team has been able to hide some of the deficiencies on the line with their quick passing game, but the 49ers may be able to take advantage if McVay doesn’t have a good game plan.
On paper, the Rams have a great matchup. The passing attack, led by Matthew Stafford, is ranked third in DVOA, while the SF defense is ranked 25th against the pass in DVOA. The Rams should come out with high percentage of passes and if they’re aggressive early they could build a big lead. The 49ers are pretty elite against the run, so don’t expect a huge Darrell Henderson game on the ground.
The 49ers have some serious issues along the offensive line and now will be without their RT Mike McGlinchey. The 49ers’ offensive should be able to combat some of the offensive line issues with a quick hitting pass attack and their usual solid rushing attack. DVOA is high on the SF offense and they should see some positive regression.
McVay has struggled mightily versus Kyle Shanahan teams, losing four straight times. There’s something to be said about Shanahan knowing all of McVay’s tricks and relaying those to his defense. I still expect the Rams to win, but this should be a tight game.
Like we mentioned, all of the sharp bettors are on the 49ers tonight. I’m not going to go against them, though I am a bit hesitant at +3.5. If you can find a +4, go for it.
Prediction: LAR 27 - SF 24
Van Jefferson over 3.5 receptions (-165)
Van Jefferson over 50.5 receiving yards (-120)
Van Jefferson over 19.5 longest reception (-125)
Darrell Henderson over longest reception 10.5 (-120)
Darrell Henderson under 69.5 rushing yards (-120)
Brandon Aiyuk under 49.5 receiving yards (-120)