Gambling With Gold MNF Preview Bills vs. Titans

Buffalo Bills (4-1) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-2)

Line: BUF -6

Total: 53.5

Moneyline: BUF -270


As of Monday morning, the entire world is on the Buffalo Bills. Per the Action Network, 80% of bets and 89% of the money are on the Bills to cover tonight and move to 5-1. Under normal circumstances I would be happy to go against the grain here and take the Titans. But do you really want to get in front of the Bills train right now? 

Since their season opening loss to the Steelers, the Bills have a +115 point differential, which is leaps and bounds better than the next closest team. Think about the 2007 Patriots. That’s what the Bills have done the past four games. OK, so we know the Bills are good. Josh Allen is great, the offense is humming again and the defense has proven to be an elite unit. 

The real question here is 1. Can the Titans do anything to slow down the Bills? 2. Are the Bills in a situational spot that would prohibit them from playing anywhere close to their best football?

The answer to that second question, to me, is no. Buffalo has had 8 days to prepare for this game, has a bye week next week and they’re relatively healthy. Moreover, this may be a bit of a revenge game. The Bills traveled to Tennessee to play the Titans last year on a Tuesday due to COVID issues with the Titans. Buffalo literally sat on a tarmac and waited for word on whether or not the game would be allowed to happen. Meanwhile, the Bills were also preparing for their next opponent, because 2020 was really weird and they had to. The Bills ended up losing that game and one can imagine that they’d want to avenge that loss on Monday night.

So, can the Titans do anything to slow down the Bills, or at least keep up? 

Well, they do have an elite offense in theory and will have the services of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones in this game. They’re still learning how to play together and to play with a new offensive coordinator, but the Titans have the potential to challenge the Bills’ defense, especially with Derrick Henry. 

On the other side of the ball, the Titans defense is one of the worst units in the NFL, especially when you factor in who they’ve played thus far this season: Seahawks, Colts, Jags, Jets, Cardinals. Not exactly the best offenses in the world. 

The Titans won’t be able to pressure Josh Allen and will struggle to cover Stefon Diggs and company. In other words, the Bills are going to get there’s. It’s just a matter of if the Titans offense can keep up against this Bills defense that has been lights out for the past month. 

I do expect the Titans to score a bit and for the Bills defense to regress a hair. The spread basically comes down to this for me: game script. If the Bills jump out to a lead early, they will win by double digits. If the Titans are able grab the lead early and maybe force a turnover, I expect them to cover a number below 6 and hold on. 

Prediction: Bills 33 - Titans 27

Best Bet

Over 53.5

1st TD: Cole Beasley +1200, Ryan Tannehill +2000

Stefon Diggs Any Time TD -105

Stefon Diggs over 7.5 receptions

Shortest TD u1.5 yards