Gambling With Gold MNF Giants vs. Bucs

New York Giants (3-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)

Line: TB -11

Total: 50

Preview

The Buccaneers are coming off of two consecutive losses and face a Giants team that is better on the road and fresh off of a bye week, with Saquon Barkley coming back. And yet, I am prepared to lay the lumber with the Bucs.

This line opened at 10 and was quickly bet up to 11. As of Monday afternoon, 50% of the bets and 53% of the money was on the Bucs, per Action Network. Earlier in the week the betting percentages heavily supported betting on the Bucs. On Friday 47% of the bets and 81% of the money was on TB. In terms of the total, 44% of the bets and 75% of the money is on the under, which has come down from 50.5 to 50. Not much movement there, especially given the betting splits.

Under normal circumstances I would be all over the Giants here. Off a bye, on the road, with Daniel Jones at QB, who thrives as a road underdog. Throw in the addition of Barkley and the 11-point spread and you have a recipe for an easy W. However, there is no part of me that wants to bet against Tom Brady after two straight losses. Not one ounce of my being wants to do that. So I won’t. 

The Bucs rushing defense is elite and I don’t expect Barkley to be very effective tonight on the ground, especially as he going to have to knock off some rust. The Bucs defense thrives in getting pressure and Daniel Jones is going to get a heavy dose of blitzes from TB. I expect Barkley to have some success as a receiver, especially given the lack of playmakers NYG has on the outside right now. Jones is going to be forced to get rid of the ball quickly and is likely to have some turnovers in this one. Jones is not a very good QB under pressure and even worse when getting blitzed. This is how TB is going to win this game going away. 

Another reason we love the Bucs tonight is that they are a DOMINANT home team. At home this season, TB is averaging 40.5 points per game versus just 23.4 points on the road.

While Brady won’t have Antonio Brown in this one, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette should feast tonight against this porous Giants defense that is ranked 30th in DVOA against the run. 

It’s a big number, but we have to bet on TB to roll tonight. That’s my final answer.

Prediction: TB 34 - NYG 17

Best Bets

TB -11 (-110)

Barkley over 3.5 receptions  (-110)

Barkley under 12.5 carries (-135)

Barkley over 21.5 receiving yards (-120)

Daniel Jones to throw an INT YES (-170)

Leonard Founette over 59.5 rushing yards (-120)